基于层次分析法的收费公路债务风险评价

对收费公路的债务风险进行系统分析,得出了收费公路的债务风险主要来自政府财政投入不足、建设养护成本高、通行费归还贷款比例偏低、高速公路分流影响、融资方式单一、收费管理成本高等。根据收费公路的债务风险因素,提出将负债比率、偿债比率、债务负担率、实际偿还比率、人员经费比率、收入利息倍数等作为收费公路债务风险评价指标。针对收费公路的债务风险难于完全定量评价的特点,采用层次分析法对其进行评价,并研究了用层次分析法进行收费公路债务风险评价的方法和步骤。

Assessment for Debt Risk of Toll Highway Based on Analytical Hierarchy Process

The influencing factors for debt risk of toll highway were systematically analyzed,as a result,the debt risk not only came from insufficient government financing,high cost of construction and maintenance and low ratio of debt repaying to incomes,but also expressway traffic volume diverging,inflexible financing methods and high management cost.Some indexes were proposed to evaluate the debt risk of toll highway,such as debt ratio,debt repayment ratio,debt burden ratio,factual repayment ratio,ratio of personal expenditure,ratio of revenue and interest.Analytical Hierarchy Process(AHP) was applied for the evaluation because it is difficult to evaluate debt risk of toll highway quantitatively.The evaluation methods and procedure of AHP to evaluate the debt risk of toll highway were discussed.