基于航班延误的机位冲突概率计算方法

为了定量描述航班随机延误对机位分配计划的影响，构建了同机位航班占用时间发生冲突的概率计算方法。首先，基于国内某机场实际航班数据，建立了航班到达延误概率的正态分布模型和起飞延误概率的混合正态分布模型，采用极大似然法和期望最大化（Expectation Maximization，EM） 算法分别对模型参数进行了估计；然后采用JB （Jarque-Bera） 检验和交叉验证法，验证了模型的有效性。在此基础上，根据机位占用冲突机理推导出同机位连续航班间的冲突概率计算公式，量化了同机位连续航班的冲突概率与两航班的延误规律和间隔时间的关系。冲突概率可用于评价机位分配计划中同机位连续航班间隔时间设置的合理性。

A Calculation Method of Gate Conflict Probability Based on Flight Delay

In order to quantitatively describe the impact of random flight delays on the allocation plan of aircrafts, a probability calculation method for conflicts between two flights assigned to the same gate was established. Firstly, based on the actual flight data of an airport in China, a normal distribution model of flight arrival delay probability and a mixed normal distribution model of takeoff delay probability were set up. The maximum likelihood method and EM(Expectation Maximization) algorithm were used to estimate the model parameters respectively. Then JB(Jarque-Bera) test and cross-validation methods were used to validate the validity of the models. On this basis, according to the mechanism of gate conflict, the calculation formula of the conflict of collision between consecutive flights of the same position was derived, and the relationship between the probability of conflict of the same flight and the delay law of the two flights and the interval time were quantified. The probability of conflict can be used to evaluate the rationality of flight interval between two continuous flights in the same position in the gate allocation plan.