蠕动型滑坡隧道的变形规律及灾害预测

为向蠕动型滑坡隧道的病害防治提供决策依据，通过调查分析，建立了3类分析隧道变形规律的地质力学模型．在此基础上，提出了隧道变形预测的灰色等维新息模型，并与有限元数值模拟相结合，建立了通过预测隧道变形进而预测滑坡体应力和位移的关联预测模式．经模型试验验证，该预测模式能可靠地预测隧道变形量、滑坡体应力和位移的变化趋势．

Deformation Law and Disaster Prediction of Tunnel in Creep Landslide

To provide a decision-making basis for the prevention of tunnel disasters in creep landslide, three typical geological mechanics models for tunnel deformation were given. Then an equal-dimensional new-information grey model GM (1,1) for predicting tunnel deformation was presented by investigating and analyzing tunnels in creep landslide. By combining this model with FEM ( finite element method) numerical simulation, a connected prediction mode was proposed. In this mode, stresses and displacement of landslide are predicted after the prediction of tunnel deformation. The results of a geological mechanical model test show that the prediction method can predict not only tunnel deformation independently, but also landslide disasters.