基于VAR模型的混合动力VLCC船舶营运数据分析

大型VLCC风帆-主机混合技术将是绿色船舶和航运时代的重大里程碑和技术创新。混合动力VLCC船型的技术经济可行性分析是开发该技术和船型工作中的一个重要环节。本文通过构建有关VLCC船舶关键营运数据的分析谱系和向量自回归模型(VAR)分析了目标混合动力船型的船价、运费、燃油价格等关键经济变量相互动态影响路径和机制。研究发现,从中、长期而言,燃油价格是影响新造船价格变化的第二大重要经济变量。这不仅反映了对于节能减排型船舶的内在市场需求,也体现了开发和推广混合动力船型的重大商业意义。

Analysis on Key Data of Hybrid-powered VLCC Operation byVAR Model

The hybrid power technology will be a remarkable milestone and technology innovation in the time of green ship and shipping, making the techno-economic feasibility study on such hybrid-powered VLCC as a key task. Through customizing the analysis pedigree and VAR model on such key time series as newbuilding ship price, freight, bunker price etc., we capture the dynamic influence path and mechanism of the above-mentioned key variables of the hybrid-powered VLCC operation. Our study finds that the bunker price,in the medium and long term,is the second most significant economic variable affecting the evolution of the newbuilding ship price. Such finding reflects the intrinsic market need of VLCC which adopts the energy-saving and emission-reducing technology as well as embodies the commercial significance of developing and promoting the hybrid-powered ship in the real world.