基于非集计的交通枢纽站客流交通方式选择模型研究

在研究交通枢纽站客流交通方式选择的非集计多项Logit离散选择（MNL）模型的过程中,以火车客流换乘方式选择的影响因素为分析对象,确定出MNL模型中影响乘客选择公交车、地铁、出租车、私人小汽车等交通方式的特性变量,然后根据调研数据,应用SPSS数理统计软件对所建的MNL模型的参数进行运算和检验。结果表明,非集计模型对大型枢纽内的乘客换乘行为预测是可行的,并且相对于集计方法,它减少了调查样本的数量,更为经济和高效。

Passengers' Selection Model on Transport Mode at Transport Hubs Based on Disaggregate Model

During the research on disaggregate model of Multinomial Logit（MNL） in allusion to passenger flow＇s transport mode selection at transport hubs,taking influencing factors of railway passenger flow＇ selection on transfer mode as an example,the characteristic variables impacting the selection of passengers on bus,subway,taxi,private car and other transport modes in MNL model are ascertained.According to the investigation data,the mathematical statistics software SPSS（Statistical Pro gram for Social Sciences） is used to calculate and verify the parameters of MNL model.The results show that it is feasible to use the disaggregate model to predict the transfer ratio.Compared with aggregate mode,it needs less investigation samples and be more economical and effective.