| 基于ARIMA的交通流量短时预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 姚亚夫,曹锋.基于ARIMA的交通流量短时预测[J].交通科技与经济,2006,23(3):105-107. |
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| 作者姓名： | 姚亚夫 曹锋 |
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| 作者单位： | 中南大学,机电工程学院,长沙,410083 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用AKIMA方法进行交通流量趋势预测．建模是利用现场调查得到的非平稳时间序列进行数据处理、建模．并根据AIC准则进行模型定阶，最后通过实测数据进行验证，结果表明。该ARIMA模型能够获得较好的中短期预测精度，因而可用于动态交通信号控制。
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| 关 键 词： | 交通流 预测 ARIMA模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1008-5696-（2006）03-0105-03 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-11-07 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005年11月7日 |
Short-time traffic flow prediction based on ARIMA |
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| YAO Ya-fu,CAO Feng.Short-time traffic flow prediction based on ARIMA[J].Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications,2006,23(3):105-107. |
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| Authors: | YAO Ya-fu CAO Feng |
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| Abstract: | It applies ARIMA method to performing short-time traffic flow prediction. In the process of modeling, the nonstationary time series obtained on the spot is transformed into stationary one. AIC rule is also used to estimate orders, Finally the simulation experiment shows that the ARIMA model fits the traffic flow predictions which can be applied to the dynamic traffic signal control. |
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| Keywords: | traffic flow prediction ARIMA model |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
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