燃油税实施对我国物流业影响的系统动力学分析

运用系统动力学方法,建立了燃油税实施对物流行业整体影响的因果关系模型；分析了物流成本、行业利润等因果循环,并抽样分析了行业20个调查企业的营业收入、燃油成本、物流成本等；建立了一个典型物流企业的单车月燃油成本的系统动力学模型；分析了燃油税征收额、汽车节油技术系数、能源替代系数3个因素对燃油成本变化的灵敏性.分析表明:燃...

Dynamics Analysis of Fuel Tax Impacting on Chinese Logistics Industry

The system dynamics method was used to establish a causal relationship model of fuel tax impacting on logistics industry.A cause and effect cycle analysis of logistics cost,industry profits was made.Industry revenues,fuel cost,logistics cost of 20 investigated enterprises were sampled to establish a dynamic model of fuel cost per month of single vehicle in a typical logistics enterprise.A sensitivity analysis of fuel tax levies,fuel saving technology coefficient and energy altering coefficient impacting on fuel costs was made.The results show that: logistics cost keeps increasing since the implementation of fuel tax two years ago,while the profits of the whole industry decrease.With fuel prices keeping rising,the profit margin of whole may continue decreasing.Combining with system dynamics analysis,some countermeasures and suggestions are given for adjusting fuel tax from three aspects: logistics enterprises,logistics industry,and the government.