| 农村人口出行方式选择模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 冯忠祥, 刘浩学, 张景峰. 农村人口出行方式选择模型[J]. 交通运输工程学报, 2010, 10(3): 77-83. doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2010.03.014 |
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| 作者姓名： | 冯忠祥 刘浩学 张景峰 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.长安大学 汽车学院, 陕西 西安 710064;;2.陕西省公安厅 交警总队高速公路交警支队, 陕西 西安 710038 |
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| 基金项目： | 陕西省交通科技项目07-35R 国家自然科学基金项目50778023 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于非集计模型的基本理论与建模方法, 根据全国12个省1249份农村人口的出行调研数据, 分析了影响农村人口出行方式选择的因素, 选择步行、自行车、摩托车、农用车、客车、私家车6种交通方式作为农村人口出行方式选择肢, 确定了影响农村人口出行方式选择的变量及相应的取值方法, 建立了农村人口出行方式选择模型, 并选取400份农村人口出行数据对模型进行了验证。计算结果表明: 各种出行方式的计算值与统计值的最大绝对误差是4.0%, 说明模型计算精度较高。
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| 关 键 词： | 交通规划 农村人口 出行方式 非集计模型 多项Logit模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010-01-26 |
Selection model of trip modes for rural population |
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| FENG Zhong-xiang, LIU Hao-xue, ZHANG Jing-feng. Selection model of trip modes for rural population[J]. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, 2010, 10(3): 77-83. doi: 10.19818/j.cnki.1671-1637.2010.03.014 |
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| Authors: | FENG Zhong-xiang LIU Hao-xue ZHANG Jing-feng |
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| Affiliation: | 1. School of Automobile, Chang'an University, Xi'an 710064, Shaanxi, China;;2. Highway Traffic Police Detachment of Traffic Police Corps, Shaanxi Public Security Bureau, Xi'an 710038, Shaanxi, China |
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| Abstract: | Referring to the 1 249 survey data of rural population in 12 provinces of China, the influence factors of trip selection modes were analyzed.Based on the theory of disaggregate discrete choice and its modelling method, 6 daily trip modes including walk, bicycle, motorcycle, agricultural truck, bus and private car were selected as the alternatives of trip modes, the characteristic variables affecting mode choice and the method getting their values were determined, and a multinomial logit(MNL)model was developed.Another 400 trip data of rural population were selected to testify the model' s validity.The result shows that the maximal absolute error between statistical data and computational values by MNL is 4.0%, so MNL has high accuracy. |
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| Keywords: | traffic planning rural population trip modes disaggregate model MNL model |
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