| 时间序列法预测沥青路面损坏状况指数研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 章华金,赵鸿铎.时间序列法预测沥青路面损坏状况指数研究[J].西部交通科技,2010(4):13-16. |
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| 作者姓名： | 章华金 赵鸿铎 |
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| 作者单位： | 同济大学交通运输工程学院,上海,201804 |
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| 基金项目： | 上海市市政工程管理局科技发展资金资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 由于沥青路面损坏状况影响因素很多，因此要准确预测路面损坏状况较困难。文章采用时间序列法建立预测模型，结合同三高速公路（上海段）路面损坏状况的实测数据进行预测分析。分析结果表明时间序列法具有较高的预测精度和易修正性。
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| 关 键 词： | 沥青路面 路面损坏状况指数 时间序列 |
Prediction of Asphalt Pavement Condition Index with Time Series Autoregression Model |
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| ZHANG Hua-jin,ZHAO Hong-duo.Prediction of Asphalt Pavement Condition Index with Time Series Autoregression Model[J].Western China Communication Science & Technology,2010(4):13-16. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Hua-jin ZHAO Hong-duo |
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| Institution: | (School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai, 201804) |
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| Abstract: | There are many factors that can influence the damage situation of asphalt pavement.It is difficult to accurately predict the damage situation of asphalt pavement.By using the pavement condition index, this article conducts prediction analysis on the road damage situation of Tongsan Expressway （Shanghai Section）.The results show that time series method has higher prediction accuracy and ease of corrective. |
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| Keywords: | Asphalt Pavement Pavement condition index Time series |
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