中国海与西北太平洋波浪长期统计的导算方法

为了满足船舶与海洋工程对波侯数据的需要，本文回顾了以往出版的几种图集资料并分析了其不足之处，着重介绍了当前国际上较新的英国波峰综合模式（NMIMET）和美国海军风浪后报模式（SOWM）及两者的结果图集。为获得中国海与西北太平洋海域更可靠的数据，在对日本气象厅的器测浮标站长期资料的统计结果与相应的船舶报资料按各种方法处理的结果比较基础上，进一步改进了NMIMET模式。这主要是在波高与周期联合概率分布导算方法上，采用一种新的更灵活的联合分布模式以代替原来所用的由Ochi建议的二维对数正态模式；同时对于在模式中需要确定的有关周期的参数，根据新的资料和计算结果对原用的回归公式作出了改进。用改进后的模式导算得到的波高、周期分布与器测浮标站结果更为接近。

ON DERIVATION OF WAVE STATISTICS FOR CHINA SEAS AND NORTHWEST PACIFIC OCEAN

In meeting the needs for long-term wave statistics in naval architecture and ocean engineering, various wave data from atlases published earlier and recent well - known ones, the NMIMET syntheses (BMT-GWS) and the SOWM hindcasts, are reviewed. This paper makes reassessments of the NMIMET model by comparative studies based on JMA buoy data and ship data at sites in the Northwestern Pacific. Meanwhile, some improvements on the NMIMET model in deriving the joint distribution of wave height and period for the concerned sea areas are proposed. The improved method makes use of a new model of the joint probability distribution P(H,T) instead of the "Bivariate Log - Normal" model proposed by Ochi. The betterment also includes some revisions of the previous regression formulae for determining period-dependeent parameters needed in the model of P(H,T).