基于时间序列法的2014年乘用车月销量预测

对我国乘用车整体及其细分车型月度销量进行合理预测，对于企业合理安排生产，优化市场规划有着重要的意义。文章以2005年1月-2013年10月共计106个月的历史数据为依据，运用时间序列方法和StatTools工具对我国2014年度乘用车及细分车型月度销量进行了预测。预测结果准确度高，具有较高的参考价值。采用时间序列法进行预测，仅以客观数据为依据，结果更加准确合理，为整车企业安排生产提供了参考。

Study on Forecasting of Passenger Car Month Sales in 2014 Based on Time Series

It has important significance for company arranging the production and optimizing the market planning when making a reasonable forecasting for passenger cars sale. The forecasting was based on the 106 months historical data from January 2005 to October 2013, the passenger car month sales in 2014 are forecasted by using time series and StatTools. The forecasting accuracy is high and has significant value. The forecasting is based on time series, the results are more correct and reasonable hased on data and supply the reference for OEMs.