| 基于GM（1，1）-马尔可夫链的城市机动车保有量预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘志谦,宋瑞.基于GM（1，1）-马尔可夫链的城市机动车保有量预测研究[J].交通标准化,2008(8):133-136. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘志谦 宋瑞 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京,100044 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金，教育部高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对城市机动车保有量具有趋势性和不确定性的特点，结合GM（1，1）模型和马尔可夫链模型在预测研究中的优点而建立的GM（1，1）-马尔可夫预测模型，可用于城市机动车在未来年份的保有量的预测研究，且该预测经实例验证，结果令人满意。
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| 关 键 词： | GM(1 1) 马尔可夫链 机动车保有量 |
Research of City Motor Vehicles Owned Quantity Forecast Based on GM(1,1)-Markov Chain |
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| LIU Zhi-qian,SONG Rui.Research of City Motor Vehicles Owned Quantity Forecast Based on GM(1,1)-Markov Chain[J].Communications Standardization,2008(8):133-136. |
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| Authors: | LIU Zhi-qian SONG Rui |
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| Institution: | (School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China) |
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| Abstract: | In allusion to the characteristics of the sequence and the incertainty of city motor vehicles owned quantity, this paper presents the GM （1,1）-Markov chain forecasting model combining the merits of GM （1,1） model and Markov chain model, which could be used to forecast the city motor vehic-les owned in the future. What＇s more, the result through the verification of an intance is satisfying by the example of Beijing vehicles owned forecast. |
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| Keywords: | GM(1 1) |
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