基于复杂网络的艰险山区铁路崩滑流灾害链全过程风险评估

艰险山区铁路沿线崩塌、滑坡、泥石流等自然灾害频发,为保障山区铁路安全建设和安全运营,对山区铁路典型灾害链进行全过程风险评估意义重大。基于复杂网络理论,对山区铁路灾害事件的孕灾环境、致灾因子、承灾体特征及链式演化规律展开研究,分析山区铁路典型崩塌滑坡泥石流灾害链成灾机理,构建山区铁路崩滑流灾害链网络模型,利用网络节点出入度、子网数、支链数、介数中心度、边介数、连通度和平均路径长度7个评价指标,综合评估灾害网络节点的重要度和边的脆弱性。结果表明:在山区铁路崩滑流灾害演化网络中,淤埋线路、车站、桥涵和隧道,行车中断或瘫痪是风险控制的关键点。研究成果为艰险山区铁路崩滑流灾害链预防、断链减灾工作做出决策支持。

Risk Assessment of the Entire Process of Railway Collapse-landslide-mudslide Disaster Chain in Difficult Mountainous Areas Based on Complex Network

Natural disasters such as collapse, landslides and mudslides along the difficult mountain railway lines occur frequently. To ensure safety construction and operation of mountain railways, it is of great significance to carry out the whole-process risk assessment of the typical disaster chain of mountain railways. Based on the complex network theory, this paper studies the disaster-preventing environment, hazard factors, characteristics of the disaster-bearing body and the chain evolution law of the mountain railway disaster events, analyzes the disaster-causing mechanism of the typical collapse-landslide-mudslide disaster chain in mountainous areas, and constructs a network model of the collapse-landslide-mudslide disaster chain in mountainous railways. The landslide and debris flow disaster chain network model uses seven evaluation indicators of network node access, subnet number, number of branches, median center degree, edge number, connectivity and average path length to comprehensively evaluate the importance of disaster network nodes and the fragility of the side. The results show that: in the evolution network of railway collapse and slipstream disasters in mountainous areas, silt buried track lines, stations, bridges and culverts and tunnels, traffic interruption or paralysis are the key points of risk control. The research results provide decision-making support for the prevention of chain collapse and disaster reduction in difficult mountain railways.