高速铁路与公路客运竞争的市场分担率模型研究

随着高速铁路的快速发展,高速铁路网络初步形成,对公路客运也产生了巨大的冲击。在原有由经济性、快速性、方便性、舒适性、安全性因素组成的传统Logit函数上,加入偏好性因素,构建了改进的Logit函数模型来分析竞争市场分担率。同时,基于运行时速和距离,构建了高速铁路与公路客运市场分担率演变模型并进行了敏感性分析。结果表明,从市场总份额和影响因素重要性角度来讲,高速铁路与公路客运市场份额分别为53.32%和46.8%;从不同距离上的竞争演变角度来讲,在高速铁路时速分别为200、250、300、350 km时,高速铁路与公路客运竞争的市场临界点分别为200、150、100、75 km,大于这些临界点时,高速铁路市场份额占优势;小于这些临界点时,公路客运市场份额占优势。

Research on Market Share Rate Models of Passenger Transport Competition between High-speed Rail and Road

With the rapid development of high-speed rail,and the initial formation of the high-speed rail network in China,which has a great impact on road passenger transport.This paper added preference factors to the traditional Logit function consisting of economical,rapid,convenient,comfortable and safe factors,fully considering the interaction between transportation modes and specific factors of passengers.An improved Logit function model was built to analyze the competitive market share.At the same time,this paper constructed the evolution model of the market share rate of high-speed rail and road passenger transport and conducted sensitivity analysis on the basis of the running speed and distance.The results indicate that from the perspectives of the total market share as well as the importance of the influencing factors,the market shares of high-speed rail and road passenger transport respectively are 53.32%and 46.8%.When the speeds of high-speed rail are 200 km/h,250 km/h,300 km/h and 350 km/h respectively,the market critical points of high-speed rail and road passenger transport competition are correspondingly 200 km/h,150 km/h,100 km/h and 75 km/h.If the distance is longer than these critical points,the market share of high-speed rail is dominant.Conversely,the market share of road passenger transport is dominant.