灰色预测在大跨径刚构桥施工线形监控中的应用

灰色系统理论因其重点研究"小样本、贫信息、部分已知"的问题,与桥梁施工监控领域的特征及需求十分吻合,成为桥梁施工监控工作中使用的主要方法之一.基于灰色系统理论中灰色预测方法,建立了一大跨径刚构桥悬臂浇筑施工主梁线形抛高值的GM(1,1)预测模型,以该桥某节段施工过程为例,利用灰色模型对节段抛高值进行预测,并与实测数据进行对比,分析了预测精度及其影响因素.灰色预测在该桥施工线形监控过程中得到了较好地应用,其使用方法简单、操作性强、预测精度高,对其他同类型桥梁的施工监控工作有很好的参考价值.

Application of Gray Prediction Method in Construction Controlling of Long Span Rigid Frame Bridge

The gray system theory,due to its focus on the problem of"small sample,poor information,partially known",is very consistent with the characteristics and needs of the bridge construction monitoring field.It has become one of the main methods used in bridge construction monitoring.In this paper,the GM(1,1)prediction model of the linear precast height of the main girder of a long span rigid frame bridge cantilever casting construction was established based on the gray prediction method of gray system theory in combination with the engineering practice.As an example,the gray model was used to predict the segment precast height.Compared with the measured data,the prediction accuracy and the influencing factors of the prediction accuracy were analyzed.The gray prediction has been well applied in the monitoring of the construction of the bridge.This method is simple with strong operability and high prediction accuracy.It may provide guideline for construction monitoring of other similar bridges.