基于分级节点的高速铁路货运动车组开行研究

“八纵八横”高速铁路网货运节点可以利用聚类分析法,依据货运总量、GDP、人口、社会消费品零售总额、快递业务量、线路连接数、城市类别和节点类别等指标划分为4个等级。基于灰色系统预测模型,预测2025年高速铁路货运量,构建数学模型计算保本货运量。依据节点划分、货运量预测、保本货运量结果,计算各等级节点中盈利OD所占的比例,结合日均OD量,分析各等级节点间开办高速铁路货运的可行性。研究表明,在一级节点之间可以开行高速铁路货运动车组专列,在二级节点之间可以开行客货联挂动车组,三、四级节点可以采用捎带运输的方式。

A Feasibility Analysis on Operation of High-Speed Rail Freight Trains based on Hierarchical Nodes

Using the cluster analysis method,this paper has divided the freight nodes on the high-speed railway network featuring“eight vertical and eight horizontal”into four levels based on eight indicators including the total freight volume,GDP,population,total retail sales of social consumer goods,express delivery volume,number of line connections,city category and node category.Based on the gray system prediction model,this paper has predicted the freight volume of high-speed railway in 2025 and accordingly put forward a mathematical model to calculate the break-even freight volume.According to the node classification,volume forecast and the result of break-even freight volume,this paper has analyzed the feasibility of transporting freight on high-speed railways between nodes at different levels based on its calculation of the proportion of OD profit on nodes at different levels and the average daily OD volume.This paper has concluded that the results show that the high speed rail freight EMUs can be operated between the first class nodes,the passenger and cargo tandem EMUs can be operated between the second class nodes,while the the railway lines on the third and fourth class nodes can adopt the mode of piggy-back transport.