基于 VAR 模型的区域交通运输需求与GDP 的关系实证分析

为研究区域交通运输需求和经济发展之间的关系，运用协整理论进行实证分析，选取1985—2013年重庆货运周转量、客运周转量、GDP数据，建立交通运输需求与经济之间的VAR模型，运用脉冲响应和方差分解对系统进行动态分析。结果表明：交通运输需求和GDP之间存在长期协整关系，GDP带动交通运输业的发展，交通运输业对GDP的贡献率较小；但随着交通运输业的不断发展，在逐渐加大对区域经济的推动作用。最后根据实证分析的结论，对重庆市交通运输业的发展提出相关建议。

Example Analysis on Relationship Between Transport Demand and GDP Based on VAR Model

In order to study the relationship between regional transportation demand and economic development ,this paper uses cointegration theory to make empirical analysis ,and selects Chongqing’s freight turnover and passenger turnover ,GDP from 1985 to 2013 to establish VAR model of transportation demand and economic ,using the impulse response analysis and variance decomposition to analyze system dynamicaly . The conclusion shows that there is a long‐term cointegration relationship between transportation demand and GDP ,GDP lead to the development of transportation ,transportation of GDP contribution is small , but with the development of the transportation gradually , the increase of the regional economy gradually over time .Finally combining the empirical analysis ,it puts forward suggestions to the transportation development of Chongqing .