| 两种预测模型在路基沉降预测中的对比分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 冯震,王连俊,王娜,刘升传.两种预测模型在路基沉降预测中的对比分析[J].铁道标准设计通讯,2005(3):11-14. |
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| 作者姓名： | 冯震 王连俊 王娜 刘升传 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京交通大学土建学院，北京交通大学土建学院，河北省地震局，北京交通大学土建学院 北京100044，防灾技术高等专科学校，北京101601，北京100044，河北秦皇岛066100，北京100044 |
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| 基金项目： | 铁道部基金项目(TJL03001) |
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| 摘 要： | 对最小方差模型和泊松模型的原理进行阐述,并将模 型应用于对路基沉降进行预测。通过实例对两种模型的预测 结果进行对比分析。分析认为,采用泊松模型预测,用于建模 的实测数据越多,预测模型的精度将越高,误差可控制在10% 以内。采用最小方差模型预测,m0的选择比较重要,但缺少约 束,较泊松模型来说精度略显不足,应慎重对待。最后建议,为 提高预测精度,两种预测模型中新旧数据的权重应该有所不 同;应给两种预测模型赋以一定的权值,进行组合预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 铁路路基 最小方差模型 泊松模型 路基沉降 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-2954(2005)03-0011-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年10月9日 |
Contrasting Analysis of Two Forecasting Models Used for Subgrade Settlement Prediction |
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| Feng Zhen,Wang Lianjun,Wang Na,Liu Shengchuan .School of Civil Engineering,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing , .Disaster Prevention School,Beijing , .Hebei Earthquake Bureau,Qinhuangdao,Hebei Province.Contrasting Analysis of Two Forecasting Models Used for Subgrade Settlement Prediction[J].Railway Standard Design,2005(3):11-14. |
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| Authors: | Feng Zhen Wang Lianjun Wang Na Liu Shengchuan School of Civil Engineering Beijing Jiaotong University Beijing Disaster Prevention School Beijing Hebei Earthquake Bureau Qinhuangdao Hebei Province |
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| Institution: | Feng Zhen,Wang Lianjun,Wang Na,Liu Shengchuan 1.School of Civil Engineering,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044, 2.Disaster Prevention School,Beijing 101601, 3.Hebei Earthquake Bureau,Qinhuangdao,Hebei Province 066100 |
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| Abstract: | Through describing the theory of Least Square Error Model and Poisson Model, this paper analyses the data from some railway subgrade settlement observation and predicts the settlement in the future by means of least square error model and Poisson model, and then gives the predicting results of two models. The result indicates that, using Poisson Model, the more observing data you have the better predicting precision you will obtain; using Least Square Error Model predict, how to choose m 0 is important. In the end, some valuable conclusions are drawn with contrasting the two forecasting models, and some useful suggestions are put forward. |
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| Keywords: | railway subgrade least square error model Poisson model subgrade settlement |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
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