基于腹地集装箱生成量分配的海铁联运运量预测方法研究

通过分析海铁联运运量的影响因素,提出基于集装箱货值的改进生成系数法来预测海运进出口集装箱内地生成量;采用多项Logit模型建立运输链选择模型,分析运输费用、运输时间和服务质量对运输链市场份额的影响,并预测腹地至港口各条运输链未来年份的市场份额;引入空重箱比例将重箱数量换算为运量。本文以陕西省为例,预测2010年陕西至上海海铁联运运量。分析表明,运输链市场份额对运输费用最为敏感,其次是服务质量和运输时间。

Rail-sea Intermodal Transportation Volume Forecast Method Based on Assignment of Hinterland Container Production

On the basis of analysis of the factors effecting rail-sea intermodal transportation volumes,this article presents the improved production coefficient method calculated by value instead of by weight.By using the multinominal logit model,the transportation chain choosing model is proposed to analyze the market shares of transportation chains influenced by cost,time and service quality,and forecast the future market shares of transportation chains from hinterland to port.By using the empty-full ratio,the quantity of loaded containers is converted into the traffic volume.Taking the shaanxi province as an example,this article forecasts the rail-sea intermodal transportation volume from xi'an to shanghai in 2010.The analysis result indicates that the market share is most sensitive to cost,and secondly to service quality and time.