高速公路交通灾害预警模型研究

在对高速公路交通灾害进行调查分析的基础上，考虑影响交通灾害预誓的主要因素。基于未确知测度理论建立各主要影响因素的未确知测度函数，利用熵确定各影响因素的指标权重，依照置信度识别准则进行预警等级判定，从而获得交通灾害预警结果．并将该预警模型应用于新疆高速公路交通灾害预警，研究结果表明，该方法能解决高速公路灾害评价中诸多因素不确定性问题，可以在实际工程中进行推广应用。

Study on the Forewarning Model of Traffic Disaster for Freeway

Based on the investigation and analysis of freeway traffic disasters, the main influential factors caused the traffic disaster were taken into account. An Uncertainty measurement function of the main factors was obtained according to the uncertainty measurement theory. Entropy theory was used to calculate the index weights of the influential factors. The traffic disaster forewarning level for freeway was defined by the credible degree recognition criteria. Furthermore, this model was applied to the early traffic disaster warning of the freeways in Xinjiang. The study results showed that the uncertainty measurement method could settle many uncertainty problems of various factors in freeway disaster evaluation and could be applied to the practical engineering.