Logit模型的改进及其在客流分担率预测中的应用——以成渝城际铁路为例

为了进一步提高Logit模型效用函数的准确性、适时性和适用性,增加了Logit模型的衡量指标,充分考虑新指标对总效用的影响,重新定义了效用函数.运用改进后的Logit模型,以成渝城际铁路全长352 km的东线方案实施并通车为背景,在成渝城际铁路实施公交化运营、公路运输进一步缩短旅行时间的新一轮公铁竞争中,估算出铁路、公路和民航的分担率.预测结果显示,铁路客流分担率仍能上升11%,从而达到87.8%,在未来成渝客运市场中占有绝对优势,而公路的份额将减少至10.7%.通过分析构建的效用函数中各个因素变化的灵敏度,作者提出建议:为了提高成渝城际铁路客流分担率,最关键的因素是提高购票成功率和增加旅行舒适度.

Improvement of Logit model and its application in forecasting the distribution ratios of passenger flows on Cheng-Yu intercity railroad

In order to improve the accuracy,timeliness and usefulness of utility function in the Logit model,some evaluation standards is added to Logit model,the influence of new standards is considered adequately,utility function is redefined.The distribution ratio of passenger flows on railway,highway and airplane are estimated by the improved Logit model when Cheng-Yu intercity railroad transportation mode is actualized and less time highway transport use,based on the data after Cheng-Yu intercity railroad eastern program was carried out and began to use.The results show that the distribution ratio of passenger flows on railway can still rise 11% to be 87.8%,and it will have the predominance in the future.And the distribution ratio of highway will be smaller,decreasing to 10.7%.Through analyzing the sensitivity of every factor in the established utility function,the suggestion can be made that improving the success probability to get tickets and increasing the comfortable ratio on a journey is the most important factor to raise the distribution ratios of passenger flows on Cheng-Yu intercity railroad.