基于蒙特卡洛法与极限分析上限法的边坡失效概率分析

边坡稳定性分析中，相比安全系数的确定性分析方法，可靠度方法可考虑系统中岩土参数的随机性，更加符合实际。为获得准确的边坡可靠度解答，采用蒙特卡洛法和极限分析上限法，结合边坡算例，对其边坡可靠度进行了分析。结果表明:对于具有相同岩土材料参数变异性与高度的边坡，其失效概率与自身安全系数有一定对应关系，得出的边坡概率模型避免了对同类边坡（相同变异性与坡高）可靠度（用失效概率表达）的逐个分析，大大提升了工作效率。

Analysis of Slope Failure Probability Based on Monte Carlo Method and Upper Bound Theorem of Limit Analysis

For slope stability analysis, the reliability method, compared to the certainty analysis of safety factor, takes randomness of geotechnical parameters into consideration, thus is more grounded in reality. To get accurate resolution of slope reliability, Monte Carlo method and upper bound theorem of limit analysis were used in combination with calculation example of slope. The result shows that, for the slopes with the same variability of geotechnical material parameters and the same height, their failure probability have certain correspondence to their own safety factor, thus the probability model of slope obtained therefrom may avoid separate analysis on reliability (in terms of failure probability) of these slopes (with the same variability and height), hence the work efficiency is improved greatly.