城市新区客运交通需求预测方法研究

城市客运交通需求预测是城市道路交通规划的基础。城市新区因缺乏现状交通调查资料、开发建设速度较快及其交通出行特征，传统客运交通需求预测方法已不再适用。在吸取国内城市道路交通规划实践经验的基础上，针对城市新区背景下道路交通规划的特点及传统客运交通需求预测方法的不足，以城市新区人口和土地利用规划为基础，提出一种面向城市新区的客运交通需求预测方法，可为我国城市新区交通预测提供借鉴。

Method Study of Passenger Traffic Demands Forecasting for Urban New Districts

Passenger traffic demands forecasting is the basic of road traffic planning. Because of the lack of present traffic data, rapid development and trip characteristic in new districts, the conventional method of passenger traffic demands forecasting is not suitable. On the basic of absorbing the practical experience of road traffic planning in our country, and in considering of the characteristic of road traffic planning and the deficiency of conventional traffic forecasting method for the urban new district, a new method of passenger traffic demands forecasting for new district based on population and land use is put forward in this paper. This method can be used for reference for traffic demands forecasting in the urban new district in our country.