基于CNL 模型的公共自行车使用模式研究

正在许多城市迅速推广的公共自行车系统被认为是解决出行“最后一公里”问题的 新型交通方式.本文将公共自行车使用分为接驳地铁、接驳常规公交及全程单独使用3种模式， 构建Cross-Nested Logit模型，利用苏州市地铁沿线公共自行车使用情况的调查数据，定量分析 影响使用模式的主要因素.研究发现，相对于接驳地铁或常规公交，公共自行车在很大程度上 倾向于被全程单独使用，在短距离出行中极可能与常规公交存在竞争关系，但对地铁出行有一 定的补充作用.本研究有助于重新思考公共自行车在城市交通系统中的定位及其发展方向.

Public Bicycle System Ridership Modes Based on CNL Model

Public bicycle system has been developing rapidly as a new means of transportation to solve the“last mile problem”in many cities of China. In this paper, public bicycle ridership is divided into three modes: transfer to metro, transfer to bus, and independent use. Based on the survey data of public bicycle usage carried out along metro lines in Suzhou, Cross- Nested Logit model is built to analyze major factors affecting ridership modes of public bicycle quantitatively. The estimation results reveal a large inclination to use public bicycle as an independent mode of travel rather than access to metro or bus. It is also suggested that public bicycle is most likely a competitor to bus in short-distance trip, but have complementary function to metro. The study helps to reconsider the positioning and developing orientation of public bicycle system.