恶劣气候对高速公路车辆出行的影响

针对恶劣气候条件下，出行概率与影响交通出行的气候条件、出行距离和安全设施等因素的内在关系，对出行概率与出行距离、气候特征等定量变量进行统计回归分析，并建立了模型。模型的复相关系数为84％，残差检验表明模型的线性假定成立。综合考虑安全设施对模型的影响，给出出行概率与各影响因素的综合数学模型。分析结果表明恶劣气候严重程度与交通出行概率成反比关系，恶劣气候条件下，出行距离与出行概率成正比关系，而不同的恶劣气候条件、车辆出行距离、道路安全设施完善程度对高速公路交通出行综合影响幅度在10％～50％之间。

Influence of adverse weather on vehicle trip at freeway

In order to analyzing the relations of vehicle trip probability with weather condition, trip distance and transportation safety facilities, the paper surveyed the number of vehicle trip at Shang-Kai freeway in severe weather, set up the regress models of vehicle trip probability with weather condition and trip distance. The complex correlativity coefficient of the models is 84%. Based on the influence of transportation safety facilities on the models, the paper summarized a compositive math model of vehicle trip probability. The results indicate that the vehicle trip probability has a direct proportion relation with trip distance and inverse proportion relation with severe weather condition, their influence degrees are 10%~50%. 3 tabs, 3 figs, 6 refs.