一种顾及多因素影响的公路客运量预测模型

提出采用双线性模型预测公路客运量。预测模型包含时序自回归项、线性回归项和双线性项三部分。为了研究模型参数的时变特性,将公路客运量预测分为模型参数的预测和在此基础上的客运量预测,采用多层递阶方法计算模型的时变参数,然后进一步分析拟合参数的变化曲线,计算后续时段的参数预测值,并以此进行公路客运量预测。实例分析表明,双线性动态预测模型能很好地反映公路客运量的发展特性,具有较高的预测精度和实用价值。

A Forecast Model Giving Consideration to Multi-factor Influence on Highway Passenger Capacity

The article puts forth to use the double -linear model to forecast the highway passenger capacity. The forecast model includes three parts of the sequential auto-regression item, linear regression item and double-linear item. In order to study the time-varying character of the model parameters, the forecast of the highway passenger capacity is divided into the forecast of the model parameter and the forecast of the passenger capacity on this basis. The multi-level hierarchic method is used to calculate the time-varying parameters of the model, and then it is to further analyze the varying curve of the fitting parameter, to calculate the forecast value of the parameter in the follow-up time period, and based on it, to carry out the forecast of the highway passenger capacity. The analysis of the practical example clearly shows that the double-linear dynamic forecast model can reflects the development characters of the highway passenger capacity very well. It has the higher forecast accuracy and practical value.