A simultaneous route-level transit patronage model: demand,supply, and inter-route relationship |
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Authors: | Peng Zhong-Ren Dueker Kenneth J Strathman James Hopper Janet |
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Institution: | (1) Center for Urban Studies, Portland State University, Portland, USA;(2) Present address: Department of Urban Planning, School of Architecture and Urban Planning, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI 53211, USA;(3) Tri-County Metropolitan Transportation District of Oregon (Tri-Met), Portland, USA |
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Abstract: | In this paper we present a route-level patronage model that incorporates transit demand, supply and inter-route effects in a simultaneous system. The model is estimated at the route-segment level by time of day and direction. The results show strong simultaneity among transit demand, supply and competing routes. Transit ridership is affected by the level of service, which in turn is determined by current demand and ridership in the previous year. The model demonstrates that a service improvement has a twofold impact on ridership; it increases ridership on the route with service changes, but it also reduces the ridership on competing routes so that the net ridership change is small. The model is thus useful for both system-level analysis and route-level service planning. |
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Keywords: | competing routes geographic information systems (GIS) route-level modeling simultaneous-equation models transit demand transit supply |
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