| 基于灰色马尔可夫理论的油气管道腐蚀剩余寿命预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 吴明亮,郝点,刘锦昆.基于灰色马尔可夫理论的油气管道腐蚀剩余寿命预测[J].管道技术与设备,2008(5):43-45. |
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| 作者姓名： | 吴明亮 郝点 刘锦昆 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国石油大学,华东,机电工程学院,山东东营,257061
2. 胜利工程设计咨询有限责任公司,山东东营,257026 |
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| 摘 要： | 以灰色理论的标准GM（1，1）模型和马尔可夫TPM理论为基础，提出了基于灰色马尔可夫理论的油气管道腐蚀剩余寿命预测方法。利用灰色马尔可夫理论预测腐蚀油气管道剩余寿命的步骤主要包括：最大允许腐蚀深度的确定，腐蚀速率的预测以及剩余寿命预测。并基于该方法，采用VB系统开发了实用软件，简便可靠。该方法可以在腐蚀速率波动比较大的情况下预测油气管道的剩余寿命，为油气管道腐蚀检测周期的确定提供了科学依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 油气管道 腐蚀 剩余寿命 灰色理论 马尔可夫理论 |
Forecast of the Remaining Life of Corrosive Oil and Gas Pipelines Based on Grey-Markov Theory |
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| WU Ming-liang,HAO Dian,LIU Jin-kun.Forecast of the Remaining Life of Corrosive Oil and Gas Pipelines Based on Grey-Markov Theory[J].Pipeline Technique and Equipment,2008(5):43-45. |
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| Authors: | WU Ming-liang HAO Dian LIU Jin-kun |
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| Institution: | WU Ming-liang , HAO Dian , LIU Jin-kun ( 1. College of Electromechanical Engineering, China University of Petroleum, Dongying 257061, China; 2. Engineering and Research Institute of Shengli Oil Field,Dongying 257026, China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the standard grey model GM(1,1) of grey theory and Markov TPM theory,a method to forecast the remaining life of corrosive oil and gas pipelines based on Grey-Markov theory is proposed.The step of this method includes calculating the maximum corrosive depth,forecasting the corrosion rate and the remaining life of the corrosive pipelines.Finally,an useful and reliable software based on this method is developed in VB system.With this method,the remaining life of corrosive oil and gas pipelines can be forecasted when the cession rate fluctuation is relatively big,thereby providing a scientific basis for the prediction of the remaining life of the pipelines. |
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| Keywords: | oil and gas pipelines corrosion remaining life Grey theory Markov theory |
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