| 基于运力均衡与价格弹性的公路货运量预测方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 杭文,张昕,李旭宏,何杰,毛海军.基于运力均衡与价格弹性的公路货运量预测方法研究[J].交通与计算机,2008,26(5). |
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| 作者姓名： | 杭文 张昕 李旭宏 何杰 毛海军 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 东南大学,南京,210096
2. 南京,210005 |
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| 基金项目： | 世界银行项目，安徽省科技进步项目，东南大学科技基金项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对传统公路货运量预测中不考虑货运供给特征和货运需求量结构性变化的不足,提出了通过分轮轴类型的交通量调查和轴载谱调查,获取基年车辆装载量概率密度分布函数,使用主流车型的短期平均运输成本拟合得到车辆长期平均运输成本函数,根据运力均衡的思想和货运需求价格弹性模型对计划年分批量的公路货运需求量进行修正,在此基础上建立外部环境变化时计划年公路货运量的预测模型.
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| 关 键 词： | 公路运输经济 公路货运量 理论分析 运力均衡 价格弹性 |
Highway Freight Volume Forecast Method Based on Conveyance Equilibrium and Price Elasticity |
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| HANG Wen,Zhang Xin,LI Xuhong,HE Jie,MAO Haijun.Highway Freight Volume Forecast Method Based on Conveyance Equilibrium and Price Elasticity[J].Computer and Communications,2008,26(5). |
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| Authors: | HANG Wen Zhang Xin LI Xuhong HE Jie MAO Haijun |
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| Institution: | Southeast University;Nanjing 210096;China;Jiangsu Provincial Communications Planning and Design Institute;Nanjing 210005;China |
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| Abstract: | In view of the shortages of traditional highway freight volume forecast and changeability of truck configuration and freight demand configuration,a new forecast method was developed.The truckload probability functions of prevailing truck configurations were got from traffic volume survey and axle load survey classified by truck wheel and axle type.The long-run average cost(LAC) function was fitted by short-run average costs of prevailing truck configurations based on actual truckload information.The future ... |
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| Keywords: | highway transportation economy highway freight volume theoretical analysis conveyance equilibrium price elasticity |
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