Multi-agent simulation of adoption of alternative fuels |
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| Authors: | Oscar van Vliet Bert de Vries André Faaij Wim Turkenburg Wander Jager |
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| Institution: | 1. Cranfield University, Centre for Environmental Risks and Futures, School of Applied Sciences, Cranfield MK43 0AL, UK;2. University of Nottingham, School of Computer Science, Nottingham NG8 1BB, UK;3. University of Nottingham Malaysia Campus, Jalan Broga, 43500 Semenyih, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia;4. London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Management, London WC2A 2AE, UK |
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| Abstract: | We have formalized and parameterized a model for the production of six transport fuels and six fuels blends from six feedstocks through 13 different production chains, and their adoption of by 11 distinct subpopulations of motorists. The motorists are represented by agents that use heuristics to choose a fuel on the basis of three attributes and a social feedback loop. Adoption of specific fuels is mostly driven by price differences, but other factors play a role if prices are similar. The results are not always intuitive and do not always show up immediately. We find that sustained combinations of interventions are required to bring about a transition away from petrol or diesel. Adoption of alternative fuels was most often confined to niche markets with a share of 5% or lower. Only in a single case was a complete fuel transition observed. |
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