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为了量化道路交叉口机动车与行人的交通冲突，阐述了机动车与行人发生交通冲突的条件，选取机动车车头时距分布函数、行人穿越机动车临界间隙及行人占用冲突区域时长作为影响冲突概率的3个关键参数；应用摄影测量原理建立了行人数量与行人占用冲突区域时长的函数关系；比较了一定数量行人条件下，行人穿越机动车临界间隙与行人占用冲突区域时长的大小；分析了多排行人同时占用冲突区域的情形；建立了不同构型分布的行人与机动车交通冲突概率模型. 通过具体实例求得了二者冲突概率的具体数值. 结果表明，随着行人流量的增加，冲突概率呈上升的趋势，符合交通流运行的实际状态.

Study on Conflict Probability Model between Motor Vehicles and Pedestrians at Intersections

In order to quantify the traffic conflict between motor vehicles and pedestrians at urban intersections, conditions under which traffic conflict may occur are presented at first, then three critical parameters which influenced traffic conflict probability are selected including distribution law of motor traffic headways, critical gap of pedestrians crossing motor vehicles and occupying duration of pedestrians, afterwards the function relation between amount and occupying duration of pedestrians is constructed with photogrammetry and the critical gap with occupying duration of a certain amount of pedestrians is compared, finally the condition that several rows of pedestrians occupied conflict zone is analyzed and the conflict probability model between difference configurations of pedestrians and motor vehicles is developed. The values of conflict probability is calculated through an actual example. The results indicate that the conflict probability increases with the volume of pedestrians growing, which accords with traffic actual working condition.