基于多层次模糊综合评价的河口港建港条件研究

港口建港条件评价是一项系统工程,从自然条件、技术条件、经济条件、城市港口及区域条件、社会及环境条件等5个方面进行评价。河口港建港条件的评价,既要符合一般港口的规律,也要考虑河口港的具体特点,取舍或重点突出某些对建港条件影响大的因素,形成合理的评价指标体系和评判标准。由于港口评价需要决策的目标多,模糊性强,对拟建港址建港条件的优劣做出准确的评判十分困难。文中采用系统工程的方法,把多目标决策技术中的模糊数学理论与层次分析方法结合起来,提出了河口港建港条件的多层次模糊综合评判模型。并以广州南沙港为例进行实证分析,研究情况与工程实际吻合较好,该项分析方法对今后类似工程评价具有良好的适应性。

Research on port-constructing condition of estuary port based on multiplayer fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method

The evaluation of port constructing condition is a system engineering,it can be evaluated from nature condition,technique condition,economic condition,city,port and area condition,society and environment condition,etc.The evaluation of estuary port constructing condition should not only accord with the regulation of general port,but also should take into account the concrete characteristics of estuary port to accept and reject or emphasize some factors what is more influence on port constructing condition,in order to come into being a reasonable evaluation index system and adjudicative standard.Because of many decisionmaking target and more fuzzy on the port evaluation,it is very difficult to adjudicate accurately good and bad of the port address building condition.Adopting the method of system engineering,a multiplayer fuzzy synthesis evaluation model of estuary port constructing condition is put forward on the basis of combining the method of fuzzy mathematics and analytical hierarchy process of multiple target decision-making technology.Taking the Guangzhou Nansha Port as a demonstration analysis,the research result fit the actual engineering accurately,the analytical method has a better adaptability to the similar engineering evaluation in the future.