基于蒙特卡洛法的舰艇规避鱼雷效能推演评估

研究水面舰艇有效机动规避声自导鱼雷的问题,以提高舰艇对抗来袭鱼雷的作战效率.针对以往舰艇规避鱼雷二维对抗态势模型的不足,建立了三维空间下的鱼雷弹道模型、自导检测模型、舰艇规避模型以及鱼雷对抗误差模型,运用Matlab工具,对舰艇机动规避鱼雷的对抗过程进行了推演,并采用蒙特卡洛法定量分析了影响舰艇规避鱼雷生存概率的主要因素.推演结果表明,规避航向和航速对舰艇生存概率有较大影响,根据鱼雷报警距离和报警舷角选择合适的规避航向/航速、提高对来袭鱼雷的报警距离和定位精度以及减少系统反应时间,可以有效提高舰艇生存概率.

Simulation of Vessel Evading Efficiency to Acoustic Homing Torpedo Based on Monte Carlo Method

In order to study operational efficiency of vessel evasion to acoustic homing torpedo, this paper establishes a torpedo ballistic model and a vessel evasion model based on typical torpedo operational state. By using Matlab to deduct the operation process of Vessel evasion, Monte-Carlo method is adopted to calculate survival probability of vessel in different e vasion factors, and the main effects on vessel＇s survival probability is quantitatively analyzed when this factors changes. De duction results indicate thai the alarm range and angle of torpedo the evasion courses and velocities have a great effect on vessel＇s survival probability. Choosing an appropriate evasion tactic on the basis of torpedo alarm range and angle, increasing the alarm range and orientation accuracy of incoming torpedo and decreasing the torpedo response time can effectively improve the vessel＇s survival probability.