基于耦合度模型的铁路发展需求性分析

目前我国存在地区经济与铁路发展水平不协调,以及不同地区整体发展水平不均衡的情况,在制定铁路发展方针时,应根据各地区铁路发展的需求程度,对有限的新建铁路投资进行合理分配。基于容量耦合理论提出了耦合度模型,得以计算铁路系统与地区经济系统的综合发展水平和耦合协调度,据此确定地区的铁路发展需求度,从而建立一种定量评估各地区对铁路新建里程相对需求量的方法。对"十二五"期间铁路发展规划的分析表明,大部分省份铁路规划新建里程与基于耦合度模型计算的铁路相对需求量基本一致;对一部分欠发达地区,铁路规划新建里程与基于耦合度模型计算的铁路相对需求量差距较大。

Analysis of Railway Development Needs Based on the Coupling Model

Currently,the development of regional economic and the development of domestic railway are uncoordinated,and the overall development in different regions is unbalanced in our country. When establishing railway development policy,the limited resources in new railway investment should be reasonably allocated according to the needs of the railway development of each region. Coupling model is proposed based on the capacity coupling theory to calculate the general development level and the coupling coordination degree of the railway system with the regional economic system. As a consequence,the development needs of the regional railway are determined,and thereby a new method of quantitatively assessing the comparative needs of new regional railway is established. The analysis of the railway development plan for the twelfth five-year plan period shows that the new railway mileage proposed for most provinces agrees with the comparative needs calculated based on the coupling models. And for some less developed regions,the planned railway mileage defers a lot from the comparative needs calculated based on the coupling model.