北京园博会园内客流分布预测及道路设计建议

北京园博会具有客流到达集中、园内滞留时间长的特点,合理的园内设施规划与设计是活动期间行人安全性的重要保障。该文首先基于北京园博会高峰日客流分布规律,建立了园内各场馆的效用函数。该效用函数考虑了场馆之间的距离、场馆面积、两个场馆是否相邻、该场馆是否有特色四个因素。效用函数计算结果表明:锦绣谷、主展馆、园林博物馆三个场馆的效用函数最大。该结果与北京园博会的设计理念和主办方客流引导规划一致。在此基础上,根据各场馆可容纳的参观人数和平均参观时间,通过效用函数,确定各场馆之间的客流分布规律。该客流分布预测结果作为仿真模型的重要输入,构建了园区内客流组织仿真模型。通过仿真测试,采集了园内主要干道的断面客流量,对园内干道的道路宽度提出了分段调整建议。

Prediction of Visitor Distribution and Suggestions of Road Design in Beijing Garden Expo Park

With the characters of aggregated arrivals and long dwell time of the visitors in Beijing Garden Expo Park,the planning and design of rational facilities within the park are the most importantly safeguard for the visitors during the large-scale activity.The paper first develops the utility function for each pavilion of the park based on the visitor distribution on peak day of Beijing Garden Expo.The utility function takes four factors into accounts,i.e.the distance among pavilions,pavilion area,whether adjacent or not of two pavilions,and whether unique or not of each pavilion.The results demonstrate that the utility functions of three pavilions,i.e.Jinxiu Valley,main pavilion and Garden Museum are the largest.This result is consistent with the concept of garden designers and the visitor guiding planning of the expo organizers.On this basis,the visitor distributions are determined among the pavilions according to the accommodated visitors and average visiting time of each pavilion by the utility function.As the important input of the simulation model,the prediction result of the visitor distribution builds the simulative visitor volume organization model of the park.The paper proposes the adjustment by sections for the road width of the roads in the park according to the visitor volume in the main roads by the simulation test.