基于物元分析理论的空管安全风险模糊综合评价

为保证航空安全,科学评价空管运行安全风险,提出了基于物元分析理论的空管安全风险模糊综合评价模型.依据国际民航组织的《安全管理手册》对空管危险源进行识别分级;然后确定空管危险源的指标体系和等级集合.在此基础上,运用物元分析理论,计算各空管危险源因素的权重矩阵,避免了人为评判的主观性,实现了权重客观赋值.应用多层次模糊综合评判方法,对空管安全风险进行了评估.以某沿海空管分局2012~2014年空管危险源相关数据为例进行了实际应用.结果表明,该沿海空管分局空管危险源因素对空管安全的影响级别属于Ⅰ级高风险、Ⅱ级中等风险、Ⅲ级低风险的隶属度分别是0.2913,0.4951,0.2136.该沿海空管分局危险源因素对空管安全的影响为Ⅱ级中等风险,与该沿海空管分局实际运行情况相符.结果证明了该方法的实用性和有效性. 

An Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation Model for Safety Risk in Air Traffic Control Based on Matter Element Analysis

In order to ensure aviation safety and scientifically evaluate the risks in air traffic control (ATC),a fuzzy synthetic evaluation model for risk assessment in ATC is established based on the matter element theory.The hazards in ATC are identified and classified according to Safety Management Manual issued by the International Civil Aviation Or-ganization (ICAO).An indicator system and a set of classes of effective factors and the corresponding degrees of hazards in ATC are determined.The weight of each hazard is calculated by the matter element theory,eliminating the limitation of subjectivity in experts′evaluation.Furthermore,the weight assignment is improved.After that,a multilevel fuzzy syn-thetic evaluation method is proposed to evaluate the risks in ATC.On the basis of statistics and analysis to the hazard data in ATC of a coastal sub-bureau of air traffic management (ATM)in 2012 – 2014,the risks are evaluated.The results in-dicate that the degree of impact of first-level,second-level,and third-level membership of hazards are 0.291 3,0.495 1, 0.213 6,respectively.The degree of impact in this sub-bureau lies at second-level.The results are consistent with the ac-tual operations.Thus the practicability and effectiveness of the proposed method is verified.