道路因素对典型较严重道路交通事故严重性的影响分析

基于道路交通事故数据探究事故影响因素对于认识事故的影响因素、提高交通安全水平具有重要意义。利用近年来国内典型较严重道路交通事故数据,应用泊松模型和负二项模型,以区分事故形态的方式建立追尾事故、侧碰事故及撞行人事故的事故死亡率的道路影响因素分析模型。这些模型以三类事故中涉及人员的死亡数为因变量,以一系列道路因素为自变量,将事故涉及人数作为偏移变量。模型的具体形式以过离散系数及赤池信息量准则(AIC)为依据进行选择。结果显示,追尾事故的死亡率与道路等级、路侧防护设施显著相关;侧碰事故则与天气、路表情况、路口路段位置、坡度以及道路结构有关;撞行人事故与路表情况、道路等级、车道数、平曲线半径有关。本文拓展了事故严重性研究的深度,其研究成果对于更好地利用重特大事故的深入调查数据有现实意义,也可为事故分析及道路设计等提供借鉴。 

An Analysis on the Impact of Highway Factors on Severity of Typical Traffic Crashes

With the purpose to improve the road traffic safety,it is important to investigate the factors which have impacts on the severity of traffic crashes.Based on the data of traffic crashes in recently years which include serious colli-sions,the types of crashes are distinguished using Poisson Model and Negative-binomial Model.These models are also used for establishing an estimation model of fatality rate for three typical crash types:rear-end crashes,lateral impact crashes and pedestrian-involved crashes.In this model,the fatality is a dependent variable and highway factors are inde-pendent variables,the numbers of persons involved in each crash is a modified variable.The parameters of this model are determined by the over-dispersion parameter and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)method.The results indicate that the grade of highway and roadside protective facilities significantly correlate with the fatality of rear-end crashes.Weather, conditions of road surface,locations of segments or intersections,gradient of roads,and structure of pavement are all rel-evant with lateral impact crashes.The factors of conditions of road surface,grade of roads,numbers of lanes,and radius of curve are relevant with pedestrian-involved crashes.This innovated method on severity of traffic crashes proposed in this study can be further used for analyses on extremely serious traffic crashes.This study could be used as a reference for accident analysis and design of roads as well.