A box model for North-East Atlantic coastal waters compared with radioactive tracers

A box model for the estimation of doses to members of the public from discharges of radioactivity into North-East Atlantic coastal waters has been used to predict annual means of radionuclide seawater concentrations which have been compared with measured data of tracer radionuclides, ¹³⁷Cs, ⁹⁹Tc and ¹²⁵Sb. Discharges of these radionuclides into the sea from the nuclear reprocessing plants Sellafield in the UK and La Hague in France have been used as input to the model. Fallout of ¹³⁷Cs from atmospheric nuclear weapons tests and fallout of ¹³⁷Cs from the Chernobyl accident into the Baltic Sea have been taken into account. A large proportion of the measured data was collected during the CEC MAST-900052 project which is concerned with the utilization of radionuclides as tracers for water movements. The data cover the time period 1972–1992. A comparison between predicted and measured concentrations of radionuclides in seawater indicated the need to improve the model with respect to mixing conditions in the English Channel and water transport from the North Sea to the Baltic Sea via the Skagerrak, the Kattegat and the Belt Sea. Improvements were made using the data for ¹³⁷Cs and ⁹⁹Tc and involved adjustments of the mixing conditions (water exchange rates) between adjacent water boxes while keeping the net advective water fluxes of the model unaltered. The results of the modified version of the model have been compared with observed values. The comparison shows a somewhat better agreement for ¹³⁷Cs and ¹²⁵Sb than for ⁹⁹Tc which is believed to be due to the lower reliability of the ⁹⁹Tc discharge data from Sellafield in 1978. An analysis of the predicted-to-observed seawater concentrations indicates an overall predictive accuracy of the model of 0.9 corresponding to a 10% underestimation and a predictive precision of about a factor of 2.5 at a confidence level of 95%. The ¹²⁵Sb data, which are independent of the tuning of the model, support the general conclusions about the model predictions of radionuclide concentrations in seawater.