基于LEAP模型的佛山市交通碳排放研究

随着城市化的发展,珠三角城市交通能源消耗和碳排放迅速增长。为了探讨珠三角城市低碳交通的发展方向,本文采用LEAP模型,以珠三角的佛山市为例,模拟了不同情景下交通总量、陆运和水运的能源消耗、能源结构和碳排放由2011至2030年的变化情况;并据此提出了珠三角城市低碳交通发展对策。结果表明:水运在交通运输中所占份额逐渐被陆运替代,将形成陆运为主、水运为辅的交通模式;在交通总量、陆运和水运等的交通能耗及碳排放方面,低碳情景均小于基准情景,且呈水运小于陆运的态势;而清洁能源使用比重的增加则有利于交通领域的低碳发展。珠三角城市低碳交通发展需关注陆运交通,提高清洁能源在陆运中的使用比重,优化陆运与水运的交通布局,提高运输及能源利用效率。

LEAP Based Research of Transport Carbon Emission in Foshan City

With the development of urbanization, carbon emission and energy consumption in traffic area of cities on Pearl River Delta are increasing significantly. In order to explore directions of development on low-carbon traffic of those cities, in this study, the LEAP Model was applied in a Pearl River Delta city, Foshan city, to simulate energy consuming, energy style change and carbon emission trends in traffic area, transport on land (TL) and transport in water (TW), from 2011 to 2030, under different scenarios. In addition, low-car-bon transport development strategies were provided based on the analysis. The research showed that the share of TW had been decreasing while that of TL had been increasing, which would also maintain in the future. The energy consuming and the carbon emission in traffic area, TL and TW, under the low-carbon scenario were lower than those under the basic scenario. The energy consumption and carbon emission in the TW were lower than those in TL, in both the basic and low-carbon scenario. Moreover, raising the ratio of clean energy on use can be helpful to the low-carbon development of traffic. Therefore, low-carbon transport development of cities in the Pearl River Delta should take more efforts in the development of TL, increase clean energy per-centage, optimize traffic outlay on TL and TW, and improve the efficiency of transportation and energy.