新能源汽车产业发展对企业平均油耗的影响研究

基于工业和信息化部最新出台的CAFC和NEV双积分管理办法以及市场公开的数据，以市场整体为视角研究了新能源汽车产业发展对企业平均燃油消耗量(CAFC油耗)的影响。研究结果表明，从2021年起，由于新能源汽车产业的快速发展，对油耗总的最大贡献将达到2.83 L/100 km，对CAFC油耗的最大贡献为2.27 L/100 km，由此造成CAFC油耗(FC_CAFC)将远低于油耗限值，最大余量为1.21 L/100 km，积分市场的整体供应将逐渐富裕，这可能会降低企业发展汽车节能技术的积极性和紧迫性，影响行业整体的实际油耗水平。

Research on The Influence of Development of New Energy Vehicles Industry on Corporate Average Fuel Consumption

The influence of NEV industry development on the corporate average fuel consumption of passenger vehicles was studied from the perspective of market as a whole, based on the CAFC and NEV Credit Policy promulgated by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the data released by the market. The results show that, due to the rapid development of NEV industry since 2021, its maximum contribution to fuel consumption will be 2.83 L/100 km, and the maximum contribution to corporate average fuel consumption will be 2.27 L /100 km. As a result, the corporate average fuel consumption will be far lower than the fuel consumption limit with the maximum allowance of 1.21 L/100 km, and the overall supply in the CAFC and NEV credit market will gradually become plentiful. Therefore the actual fuel consumption level of the whole passenger car industry will be affected, and the enthusiasm and urgency of developing automotive energy saving technologies may be reduced in the industry.