可靠性理论在公交网络分析中的应用

为了研究公交线路的布局及其发车频率两因素对乘客候车难易程度的影响,以公交网络拓扑为基础,借鉴工程可靠性理论,从直达站点对、非直达站点对以及公交网络3个层次提出了乘客候车可靠度概念,建立了相应的计算模型,并设计了可行的计算机程序。其中直达站点对、非直达站点对的乘客候车可靠度指标反映了在给定的公交站点对之间乘客候车难易程度,公交网络乘客候车可靠度反映了所有站点对之间乘客候车难易程度的平均值。乘客候车可靠度图中各站点对之间用线条连接,其宽度表示乘客候车可靠度值大小。该图可反映乘客在站点对之间出行时等候公交车辆难易程度的分布规律。算例证明了乘客候车可靠度及其图形能够为公交网络的定量、定性分析提供依据。

Application of the Reliability Theory in the Analysis of the Transit Network

To study the influence of bus lines' layout and its service frequency on passengers' waiting difficult degrees,on the basis of the transit network topology and the engineering reliability theory,the passengers' waiting reliability was defined according to three levels including through stops,non-through stops and transit network.Their corresponding calculation models were built and the feasible program was designed.The passengers' waiting reliability of through stops and non-through stops reflect the passengers' waiting difficult degrees between the given pairs of stops.And the transit network's reliability is the average of the passengers' waiting reliability in all pairs of stops.In the graph of the passengers' waiting reliability,lines whose width expresses the magnitude of waiting reliability correspond to pairs of stops.The graph reflects the distribution rules of the difficult degrees that the passengers wait for buses between pairs of stops.The example proves that the passengers' waiting reliability and the graph can be used in the quantitative and qualitative analysis of the transit network.