Long-term prediction method for the green water load and volume for an assessment of the load line

 To develop a practical prediction method for the green water load and volume on the bow deck in irregular waves, model tests were conducted using a tanker and a cargo ship on a domestic Japanese voyage. The relation between green water load and relative water height at the stem was considered. Based on the finding that the maximum value of the green water load is proportional to the square of the maximum value of the water elevation over the bow top, the probability density functions of the green water load and volume in short-term predictions were proposed. It was verified that the proposed functions show good agreement with the measured distributions, especially in the tails, and were better than conventional functions. Using these functions, long-term predictions of the green water load were carried out. It was confirmed that the present method is more rational than the conventional one for estimating the long-term probability of the green water load. An assessment of the bow height of a domestic Japanese ship from the viewpoint of deck wetness was carried out using these prediction methods. This research was used as the technical background for the revision of domestic rules on load lines, which was enforced in October 2001. Received: July 19, 2002 / Accepted: October 30, 2002 Acknowledgment. Some of the present study was carried out as part of a cooperation project (RR45) with the Shipbuilding Research Association of Japan, supported by the Nippon Foundation. Address correspondence to: Y. Ogawa (e-mail: ogawa@nmri.go.jp)