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| 基于概率分布的轨道不平顺发展统计预测 | |
| 引用本文： | 高建敏,翟婉明,徐涌,陈东生.基于概率分布的轨道不平顺发展统计预测[J].铁道科学与工程学报,2006,3(6):55-60. |
| 作者姓名： | 高建敏 翟婉明 徐涌 陈东生 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 西南交通大学,列车与线路研究所,四川,成都,61003 2. 铁道部科学研究院,铁道建筑研究所,北京,100081 3. 铁道部科学研究院,基础设施检测中心,北京,100081 |
| 基金项目： | 教育部创新团队计划项目(IRT0452)，国家博士学科点基金资助项目(20030613011)，西南交通大学博士生创新基金资助项目 |
| 摘 要： | 针对轨道不平顺的随机性,应用数理统计原理和方法,对轨道动态不平顺检测数据进行统计分析,研究轨道不平顺的概率分布特性。分析讨论基于不平顺分布函数特征的不平顺发展统计预测方法,比较不同统计预测模型的预测效果和预测精度。研究结果表明:轨道不平顺概率分布接近于正态分布;在轨道不平顺概率分布特性分析的基础上,指数平滑预测方法具有较好的预测效果和预测精度,能够用于轨道不平顺发展预测问题的研究。 |
| 关 键 词： | 轨道不平顺 概率分布 预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1672-7029(2006)06-0055-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年9月18日 |
Development forecast model of track irregularity based on probability distribution |
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| GAO Jian-min,ZHAI Wan-ming,XU Yong,CHEN Dong-sheng.Development forecast model of track irregularity based on probability distribution[J].Journal of Railway Science and Engineering,2006,3(6):55-60. | |
| Authors: | GAO Jian-min ZHAI Wan-ming XU Yong CHEN Dong-sheng |
| Abstract: | Based on the randomicity of track irregularity and applying the theory and method of mathematical statistics,the characteristics of probability distribution was analyzed with the actual inspection data by track inspection car.According to the distribution characteristics of track irregularity,the forecast method was discussed,and the forecast effect and forecast precision of different forecast models of irregularity development were compared.The analytical results show that,the probability distribution of track irregularity is close to normal distribution.The exponential smoothness forecast models have preferable forecast effect and forecast precision.The exponential smoothness forecast model,which is similarity to Holt forecast model,is applicable to the development forecast research of track irregularity. |
| Keywords: | track irregularity probability distribution forecast |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |