| 基于ARIMA-FNN的道路交通事故最优加权组合预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 王臻,张兴强.基于ARIMA-FNN的道路交通事故最优加权组合预测模型[J].交通与计算机,2010,28(3):89-92. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王臻 张兴强 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京,100044;北京交通大学城市交通复杂系统理论与技术教育部重点实验室,北京,100044 |
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| 摘 要： | 1个适应性良好的道路交通事故预测模型对于交通管理、控制和有关规划设计起着重要作用,文中根据交通事故发生的时空性和多因素性,利用ARIMA模型良好的时间序列线性拟合能力和FNN强大的非线性映射能力,通过最优加权方法确定模型权重,建立ARIMA和FNN的组合模型,并对我国道路交通事故进行预测。结果表明：这一模型可以提高事故预测精度,是1种有效的事故预测模型。
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| 关 键 词： | ARIMA FNN 最优加权 交通事故 |
Model of Road Traffic Accidents Prediction Based on ARIMA-FNN Optimal Weighted Combination |
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| WANG Zhen,ZHANG Xingqiang.Model of Road Traffic Accidents Prediction Based on ARIMA-FNN Optimal Weighted Combination[J].Computer and Communications,2010,28(3):89-92. |
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| Authors: | WANG Zhen ZHANG Xingqiang |
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| Institution: | ,(School of Traffic ＆ Transportation,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)1(MOE Key Laboratory for Urban Transportation Complex Systems Theory and Technology,Beijing 100044,China)2 |
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| Abstract: | A good adaptability road traffic accident prediction model is not only important for traffic management and control but also for traffic plan.According to the space-time nature and multi-factors of traffic accident,this paper established a combination model with ARIMA and FNN,which is based on the way of synergic curve weighing to forecast the traffic accidents in China.In this model,the ARIMA can linearity fitting time sequence and FNN has the great ability of nonlinearity mapping.The prediction results show that the combination model is an effective traffic accident forecast model,which can increase the precision of traffic accidents prediction. |
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| Keywords: | ARIMA FNN |
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