Capturing tour mode and activity choice interdependencies: A co-evolutionary logit modelling approach |
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Authors: | Stephan Krygsman Theo Arentze Harry Timmermans |
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Institution: | aUniversity of Stellenbosch, Department of Logistics, Private Bag X1, Matieland 7602, South Africa;bEindhoven University of Technology, Urban Planning Group, P.O. Box 513, 5600 MB Eindhoven, The Netherlands |
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Abstract: | It is generally assumed that the choice of transport mode and the choice of including intermediate activities on a work tour are interrelated, but little is known about the nature of the causal relationship. To shed light on this, this paper addresses the question of whether transport mode choice is dependent on the activity choice or vice-versa. A new methodology, referred to as the co-evolutionary approach, is combined with a set of MNL models, one for each choice facet involved, to derive an indication of the order of decisions on an individual level. The models are estimated based on the work tours of a large sample of individuals in the Netherlands. The results suggest that there is substantial variation in the order of the transport mode and activity decisions. However, in the majority of cases the activity decision is made before the mode decision, suggesting that the transport mode and, in particular, the choice between car and public transport is most often ‘adjusted’ to the choice of trip chaining rather than the other way round. |
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Keywords: | Tours Activity choice Mode choice Intermediate activities Logit modelling Decision order |
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