| 基于Bayes拟合法的船舶复杂系统总体任务可靠度评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 马莹,张裕芳,易宏,倪绍徐.基于Bayes拟合法的船舶复杂系统总体任务可靠度评估[J].船舶工程,2009,31(4). |
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| 作者姓名： | 马莹 张裕芳 易宏 倪绍徐 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海交通大学船舶海洋与建筑工程学院,上海,200030 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对现有系统可靠性评估方法不适用船舶复杂系统总体任务可靠度评估这一特点,提出了一种基于Bayes思想和矩估计理论的Bayes拟合方法.该方法从船舶系统总体任务可靠度特点出发,将无失效数据转化为等效失效数,由已知各种验前信息、历史信息和试验信息,求得系统总体任务可靠度后验分布函数,并给出不同置信度水平下系统总体任务可靠度下限,较好地解决了小子样、无失效、可维修情况下的船舶复杂系统总体任务可靠度评估问题.
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| 关 键 词： | Bayes拟合法 矩估计 无失效数据 等效失效数 任务可靠度 |
Evaluation of ship complex system mission reliability based on Bayes fitting method |
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| MA Ying,ZHANG Yu-fang,YI Hong,NI Shao-xu.Evaluation of ship complex system mission reliability based on Bayes fitting method[J].Ship Engineering,2009,31(4). |
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| Authors: | MA Ying ZHANG Yu-fang YI Hong NI Shao-xu |
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| Institution: | MA Ying,ZHANG Yu-fang,YI Hong,NI Shao-xu(School of Naval Architecture,Ocean , Civil Engineering,Shanghai Jiaotong Univ.,Shanghai 200030,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the defects of the existing system reliability evaluation methods,a new method combined Bayes thoughts and moment estimation is given.The implication of mission reliability is put into the reliability test and evaluation.The zero-failure data is transformed into equivalent failure data.A complex system posterior distribution function is fitted by all kinds of prior information,historical information and testing information.Then,the statistical value of ship complex system mission reliability evalua... |
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| Keywords: | Bayes fitting method method of moment zero-failure data equivalent failure data mission reliability |
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