考虑出发时刻调整的日变路网配流模型

为研究交通事件导致的非平衡态下日变交通网络流量的演化规律，考虑每日 出行中对出发时刻的调整，以准点到达概率最大为追逐目标，建立每日出发时刻流量转 移模型；以前景理论描述出行者有限理性，建立基于出行时间预算的路径到达前景值及 追逐前景值最大的路径流量转移模型.并依据先确定出发时刻再调整路径的行为机制建 立日变路网配流模型.最后以一个算例验证模型和算法.结果表明，路径流量在每日出行 中随时刻的分布均呈现凸函数特性，且随着出行天数的增加，各条路径上流量随时刻分 布趋于稳定；与不考虑时刻调整的模型结果相比，考虑出发时刻的情形下，路网稳定所需 时间更长，且趋于平衡的过程中，流量振幅更大，且能达到新的平衡状态.

Day-to-day Traffic Flow Assignment Model Considering Departure Time Adjustment

In order to study the evolution law of day-to-day traffic flow under non-equilibrium caused by incident, adjustment of departure time is introduced into consideration. With the pursuit of maximizing the arrival probability, daily transfer model for departure time is established; prospect theory is adopted to describe travelers’bounded rationality, and daily transfer model for path is established based on paths prospect value under the reference point of travel time budget. Finally, a numerical example is adopted to verify the model and algorithm. The results show that the daily path presents convex function, and with the increase of travel days, all paths flow distribution tend to be stable over time; Comparing with nonconsidering of time adjustment, the results show that the network stability requires longer days, tends to a larger amplitude, and reaches a new equilibrium finally.