道路拥堵概率估计方法及其在城市交通运行评价中的应用

首先提出能够统一描述不同交通负荷下路段内车流离散性进的出行时间指数(TTI)概率分布模型,并建立该分布模型参数随路段速度变化的模型.进而给出一种新的拥堵概率估计方法.其根据路段速度获得路段内车辆TTI的概率分布参数,进而获得隐含的车辆TTI概率分布及路段处于不同拥堵状态的概率.应用于交通运行评价,解决了现有方法评价结果受路段长度影响,以及微观评价波动性大的缺陷.给出的理论方法在交通运行分析、仿真及控制领域具有广泛的应用前景.

A Method for Estimating Road Congestion Probability and Its Application in Urban Traffic Operation Evaluation

First, this paper proposes and validates that travel time index (TTI) of vehicles have a uniform probability distribution mode under different link speed. Then, it proposes a model which describes how the distribution parameters vary with link speed. On such basis, a novel method of estimating congestion probability for traffic operation evaluation is presented. Probability distribution parameters are obtained based on road speed, then different congestion probability could be got according to probability distribution. The proposed models and method are used to solve the insufficient problem of existing traffic operation evaluation methods of big cities in China. The result shows that the given method can address the impact of link length on evaluation result and significant volatility of microscopic evaluation entailed by the existing methods. The proposed theoretical models hold broad application prospects in the field of traffic performance analysis.