基于概率的右转短车道信号控制交叉口延误模型

研究城市道路中常见的右转短车道信号控制交叉口车辆延误模型.该模型考 虑了交通流变化随机性导致的右转短车道交通阻滞问题，改进了现行美国通行能力手册 （HCM 2010）中将短车道视为独立进口车道的计算方法.本文应用概率论方法并结合交叉 口特性，同时考虑了短车道、交通流率和信号配时等因素影响，提出了一种改进的交叉口 延误估计方法.通过使用SimTraffic 微观仿真模型，应用交叉口获得的实测数据对模型进 行参数标定，验证了模型的有效性.研究结果表明，短车道对右转车辆延误有显著影响.尤 其在短车道长度小于2 辆标准车长的情况下，允许红灯右转（Righe-turn-on-red, RTOR）可 以有效缓解过饱和交通流问题并减少交叉口实际延误.

Probability-based Delay Model for Signalized Intersections with A Short Right-turn Lane

This paper documents the modeling of vehicle delays at signalized intersections with a short right-turn bay which is commonly seen in urban traffic. The model is developed considering the stochastics of traffic volume variation which can result in uncertain blockage occurrences to the short right-turn bay. The proposed model enhances the existing methodologies documented in the U.S. Highway Capacity Manual 2010 (HCM 2010) which treats the short bay as an exclusive full lane. The model incorporates probabilistic theories and intersection characteristics, thus providing an improved approach to delay estimation by considering the short-bay storage length, traffic flow rate, and signal timing. The proposed model is validated using the SimTraffic microscopic simulation model, which is calibrated using field data obtained at a realworld intersection site. Based on the model, it is found that the short-bay length strongly influences the rightturn vehicle delays. In addition, allowing right-turn-on-red (RTOR) can ease the over-saturation problem and reduce the approach delay substantially, especially when the short-bay length is less than 2-vehicle storage length.