突发事件应急救援物资需求预测的方法研究

应急物资需求的预测是突发事件应急救援顺利高效开展的关键环节之一,而能否做出准确的预测是当下亟待解决的问题.通过考虑时间对特征因素的影响,采用了熵值法确定特征因素权重系数,运用灰色关联度算法计算案例间的相似度,使用了基于时间因素影响的权重调整的方法,建立突发事件应急救援物资需求预测模型,从而求得相似案例,以解决灾区应急物资需求问题.通过对5个源案例与目标案例各个特征因素的相似度分析,验证了该模型的合理性和可行性. 

Method for Emergency Materials Demand Forecasting in Sudden Events

The forecast of demand for emergency supplies is one of the key links in the process of efficient emergency rescue activities,and the ability to make accurate prediction is very close to the present problems to be solved.Considering the impact of time on characteristic factor,this paper proposes the weights adjustment of time factor influence and uses the Entropy method to determine the weights value of characteristic factor.In order to solve the disaster emergency supplies demand problem,the paper introduces the gray correlation algorithm to calculate the similarity between the cases and seeks the similar cases.Finally,through the analysis of the character factors of five source cases and the target case,the paper verifies the feasibility and rationality of the model.